Honeywell predicts 47% turbo use by 2020

Honeywell predicts 47% turbo use by 2020

Growth strongest in 3-cylinder engines.

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September 18, 2015

Frankfurt, Germany – Turbocharger producer Honeywell sees the evolving needs of auto makers driving not only turbo adoption globally to 47% by 2020, but an increasing appetite for turbo technology innovations that enhance a vehicle's overall powertrain system, reduce complexity, and are tailored to local market needs.

Honeywell’s annual survey of automakers shows a focus on rightsizing engine technology, more than simply downsizing engines, to optimize vehicle performance and fuel economy as global regulations continue to drive more fuel efficiency.

"The Golden Age of Turbo is gathering momentum globally as the industry numbers indicate," says Terrence Hahn, Honeywell Transportation Systems president and CEO. "But there is a clear demand for more sophisticated turbo technology that covers the entire powertrain performance envelope. Automakers are turning to suppliers like Honeywell to meet the unique needs of fuel-efficient 3-cylinder engines, increase power from 4-cylinder engines with advanced aerodynamics, and soon deliver electric boosting and energy recovery systems for advanced hybrid powertrains."

Adoption of turbocharged 3-cylinder gasoline and diesel engines is emerging as a huge growth trend globally for fuel efficient entry-level and mid-range vehicles. Honeywell sees an industry compound average growth rate (CAGR) of 30% through 2020 resulting in sales of 7 million 3-cylinder turbocharged engines by 2020. Honeywell's Gen3 gasoline turbocharger range is optimized to withstand the higher loads generated by the 3-cylinder configuration.

Globally, 4-cylinder engines will continue to represent 75% of the turbocharged light vehicle industry in 2020. Honeywell forecasts this turbo engine family will have a 7% CAGR through 2020. For this category, Honeywell technologies such as variable geometry (VNT), twin scroll, mixed-flow, ball bearings, and DualBoost will help auto makers improve engine power without sacrificing transient response.

Multi-stage boosting for diesel engines is another key innovation to help auto makers achieve greater engine performance, without breaching fuel economy regulations. By 2020 more than 2 million light new vehicles per year will be launched with multi-stage boosting systems. Honeywell is preparing to launch the industry's first two-stage application with two variable geometry turbos combined in series for ultimate power density and response.

Globally, diesel engines will retain an important share of light vehicle sales at nearly 20%, due to their lower fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. In particular, Honeywell expects diesel penetration to double in North America to 7% by 2020, enabled by the latest clean diesel turbocharging and after-treatment technologies.

Penetration of hybrid powertrains, including plug-ins, will be up 4 points to 7% of the global light vehicle market. Approximately 25% of these vehicles will use turbocharged engines, compared to 10% today, opening the door to potential future enhancement with electric boosting and energy recovery.

In contrast, battery electric vehicles are expected to be only 1% of global light vehicle sales in 2020 due to high battery costs and limited range between charges.

"Turbo penetration continues to grow as automakers develop global engine programs which can fill needs in multiple markets. Consumers are adopting fast, and expect the highest levels of quality and reliability,” Hahn says. “We started implementing the Honeywell Operating System (HOS) more than 10 years ago to deliver consistent quality and continuous improvement from all of our locations around the world with rigorous supply-chain oversight."

Source: Honeywell Transportation Systems