8M autonomous cars in use by 2025

Departments - Autonomous

May 7, 2018

With automakers setting ambitious timelines, forecast company ABI Research is predicting 8 million consumer vehicles shipping in 2025 that offer some level of self-driving capability.

The prediction covers SAE Level 3 and 4 technologies, where drivers will be necessary but can shift safety-critical functions to the vehicle, and SAE Level 5 technology, where no driver will be required at all. Market growth will help drive shipments of light detection and ranging (LiDAR) sensors that underpin the technology. As many as 36 million LiDAR units are expected to ship in 2025, corresponding to a market value of $7.2 billion.

“With the rapid development and deployment of various advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), higher level automation represents the next suitable step,” says Shiv Patel, research analyst at ABI Research.

Solutions from companies such as Innoviz and LeddarTech have emerged as the LiDAR form factor that will enable sensing on autonomous vehicles at prices palatable to automakers. These units are expected to reach $200 and $750 per unit by 2020, for low and high-end solutions respectfully.

In fully autonomous applications, i.e., SAE Level 5, such as autonomous ridesharing, where the aim is to eliminate the driver completely; more expensive, traditional mechanical LiDAR solutions with higher resolution sensing remain the go-to option. Although solid-state LiDAR performance continues to improve, mechanical LiDAR as part of a broader suite of other sensor types is currently seen as the only short-term option to enable full automation quickly for aggressive implementers.

ABI Research

Jaguar Land Rover, Waymo partner

Jaguar Land Rover and Waymo, Google’s autonomous driving division, have partnered to develop luxury self-driving vehicles. Jaguar’s I-Pace electric small crossover will be the first premium vehicle in Waymo’s fleet, with testing due to start later this year and joining the fleet by 2020.

“Our passion for further advancing smart mobility needs expert long-term partners. In joining forces with Waymo we are pioneering to push the boundaries of technology,” says Jaguar Land Rover CEO Ralf Speth.

Up to 20,000 I-Paces will be built in the first two years of production and be available for riders of Waymo’s driverless service, serving a potential 1 million trips per day.

“The team at Jaguar Land Rover has developed an all-new battery-electric platform that looks to set a new standard in safety, design, and capability,” says Waymo CEO John Krafcik. “We're sure Waymo riders will enjoy the safe, premium, and delightful experience that the self-driving I-Pace will provide.”

Jaguar Land Rover Ltd.